The 2020 Count Finds Fewer Whites and Many More Hispanics and Asians
A new racial breakdown of the 2020 U.S. Census shows that the number of whites in the United States is declining – a statistical trend predicted for a decade but arriving early.
It is part of a release of data that also included congressional district counts that will be seen mostly for the redrawing of congressional district lines. That will cause lots of partisan consternation since it will allow Republican-controlled legislatures to redraw lots of boundaries, enough perhaps to change the House majority.
All the population growth in the country is being driven by racial minorities. For the first time ever, whites could account for fewer than 60% of the population and those under 18 are majority non-white. The year 2011 was the first time more non-white babies were born than white babies, and for the past two decades, the growth of the nation’s child population has been due entirely to Hispanic, Asian and multiracial people.
It is the kind of shift that should give new impetus to efforts to rebalance long-standing racial inequities in housing, employment and social interactions.
Last year we learned that the United States grew by just 7.4% in the past decade, more slowly than any decade except the 1930s. States showing the largest increases were in the West and the South, which have seen people moving in from other countries and other states.
Somehow, this will be the background music playing as states start to reconfigure voting districts and governments reconsider the pressures on public services of all kinds.
It is the kind of shift that should give new impetus to efforts to rebalance long-standing racial inequities in housing, employment and social interactions.
We’re hearing this social science report as we see the rise of white supremacist groups in the country, the turmoil over police killings of unarmed Black citizens, sustained arguments over the equity of affirmative action programs in college admissions and hiring and a loud clash over whether we ought to teach students at all levels to think critically about the history of race in this country.
Census Updates
The U.S. Census runs surveys and estimates based on such changes as births, deaths and immigration to fill in its gaps. That’s what we’re seeing in this report.
Sill, there have been continuing concerns over accuracy of the 2020 Census, with insufficient funding for preparation, Trump administration attempts to add a citizenship question and block undocumented immigrants from being counted for apportionment and the Covid pandemic. If anything, the experts tell us, the Census may be undercounting racial minorities.
Nevertheless, there are trends here that stimulate thought:
- The country’s growth in the last four years came from increases in people of color, driven by gains among those identifying as Hispanics who have doubled population share over three decades and half the growth in Texas, Florida, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada. Hispanics are about 20% of the U.S. population, Asian Americans are on a path to double to 6% and Blacks remaining at about 12.5%
- Whites account for over half the growth in only five states, plus the District of Columbia. In 26 states the number of whites has declined, according to bureau estimates. Up to six states, including Nevada and Maryland show near majorities of people of color
- As a trend, whites will fall below 50% nationally around 2045 when there will be no racial majority in the country
- There is a continuing diversification of the suburbs, once a bastion of whiteness. Now, more minorities live in suburbs than in cities; most of the nation’s more than 3,000 counties and its more than 350 metropolitan areas became less white in the past decade
- Immigration policies obviously are a factor here, and states vary. Some states will remain whiter and continue to lose population as their residents age and die or move away while others will grow and become increasingly ethnically and racially diverse
- The U.S. population is also becoming older. In 31 states, the population of people under 18 is estimated to have declined since 2010.
Now What?
So, we’re an increasingly aging country for whites and an increasingly young country for people of color. Angry perceptions already are dialed up to high for those who think they are losing influence over the nation’s direction. Doesn’t this growing mix of more natural diversity demand more from our democracy than what we’re seeing in white nationalism or defining anyone who raises questions as seeking to defund the police?
In a country with slow population growth altogether and rising costs for health and social services for the elderly, doesn’t it demand a new, less-contentious look at regulating immigration to match the needs of a starved labor force to support the economy? Isn’t it racial minorities who will drive all the growth in the U.S. labor force as white Baby Boomers retire and deaths from pandemics and other causes increasingly decline in rural areas?
How do we plan to balance the obvious needs in education, health, housing and the rest for growing non-white segments of the population as disproportionate numbers of whites take up guns and MAGA slogans to defend what they have? Are we going to spend our tax money on senior citizen services or on English-language and job training classes – or both? How do we plan to pay for it without tagging billionaires to even pay what they already owe in taxes?
How long do we need to contrast inclusion in the Joe Biden cabinet, for example, with that of Trump? Why is diversity an ugly cultural word rather than the standard for a country moving faster toward a no-majority racial makeup?
The interesting parts of the data are the possibilities the results provoke.
